Background
Holden Comeau
The analytical approach behind RaceProof didn't start in cycling. A decade ago, while building a guest analytics product at lululemon, I was working with digital commerce and demand data, trying to understand what drives guest loyalty beyond simple transaction frequency. The question that kept surfacing was whether certain behaviors, at certain intensities, created fundamentally different customer trajectories.
Running a similar analysis on fitness participation data, I found a threshold effect: roughly three sessions per week was the inflection point where engagement behavior shifted from casual and churn-prone to committed and self-reinforcing. Below the threshold, participants treated fitness as an obligation. Above it, something changed. They identified with the activity. They stayed.
That same pattern is now visible across hundreds of thousands of competitive cyclists and four years of racing data.
RaceProof exists because the question scaled. The dataset is larger, the domain is different, and the analytical tools have matured. But the core insight is the same: the relationship between behavioral intensity and measurable outcomes is not linear. There is a point where more becomes different, where engagement stops being a metric and starts being a mechanism. Finding that point and proving it with data is what this project does.
Credentials